Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 51.99%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 22.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.91%) and 1-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
22.78% ( -0.05) | 25.22% ( 0.01) | 51.99% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 48.8% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.48% ( -0.09) | 53.51% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.97% ( -0.08) | 75.03% ( 0.07) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.45% ( -0.1) | 38.54% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.71% ( -0.1) | 75.29% ( 0.09) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.41% ( -0.03) | 20.58% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.87% ( -0.03) | 53.12% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0) 2-1 @ 5.7% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.61% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.52% Total : 22.78% | 1-1 @ 11.95% 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.83% Total : 25.22% | 0-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.22% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.98% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.06% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.97% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 51.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |