Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.72%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 9.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.46%) and 3-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.8%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Portimonense |
73.72% ( 1.08) | 16.41% ( -0.46) | 9.86% ( -0.62) |
Both teams to score 47.66% ( -0.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.4% ( 0.27) | 39.59% ( -0.27) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.05% ( 0.28) | 61.94% ( -0.28) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.73% ( 0.33) | 9.26% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.69% ( 0.77) | 31.3% ( -0.77) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.53% ( -1.04) | 47.46% ( 1.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.16% ( -0.79) | 82.83% ( 0.79) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Portimonense |
2-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.21) 1-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.27) 4-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.74% Total : 73.72% | 1-1 @ 7.8% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.76% Total : 16.41% | 0-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.45% Total : 9.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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