Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 82.58%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 5.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.63%) and 1-0 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.52%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (1.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | SC Farense |
82.58% ( -0.71) | 11.66% ( 0.48) | 5.75% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 45.21% ( -0.57) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.36% ( -1.48) | 31.63% ( 1.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
46.86% ( -1.76) | 53.13% ( 1.76) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.34% ( -0.41) | 5.66% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.09% ( -1.18) | 21.91% ( 1.18) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
47.92% ( -0.4) | 52.08% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.94% ( -0.26) | 86.05% ( 0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | SC Farense |
2-0 @ 12.15% ( 0.37) 3-0 @ 11.63% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.47) 4-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 7.59% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.18) 5-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.23) 5-1 @ 3.13% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.04) 6-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.17) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.13) 5-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.06% Total : 82.57% | 1-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 2.95% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.61% Total : 11.66% | 0-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.03% Total : 5.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |