Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.55%) and 0-2 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Porto |
24.63% ( 1.22) | 24.7% ( 0.28) | 50.67% ( -1.5) |
Both teams to score 52.37% ( 0.45) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.19% ( -0.05) | 49.81% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.19% ( -0.05) | 71.81% ( 0.05) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.19% ( 1.05) | 34.81% ( -1.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.46% ( 1.1) | 71.54% ( -1.09) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.34% ( -0.62) | 19.66% ( 0.62) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.36% ( -1.02) | 51.64% ( 1.02) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.1% Total : 24.63% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.7% | 0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 9.55% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 9.05% ( -0.34) 1-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 4.91% ( -0.28) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.1) 0-4 @ 2% ( -0.16) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.9% Total : 50.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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