Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
49.06% ( -0.36) | 26.03% ( 0.2) | 24.91% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 48.7% ( -0.43) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.23% ( -0.64) | 54.76% ( 0.64) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.92% ( -0.53) | 76.08% ( 0.53) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.64% ( -0.43) | 22.36% ( 0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.15% ( -0.64) | 55.84% ( 0.64) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.73% ( -0.21) | 37.27% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.94% ( -0.21) | 74.06% ( 0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
1-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 9.35% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.02% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.08% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.72% Total : 24.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 32 |
11 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 21 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |