Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 48.29%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 26.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Poland in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Poland.
0.68) 
-0.05) 
