World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage

Mar 21, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Narodowy

Poland
1 - 0
Lithuania

Lewandowski (81')
Piatkowski (70')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Utkus (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Poland and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Poland

All competitions

Last Game: Poland 1-2 Scotland
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	8	14
2	Croatia	6	0	8
3	Scotland	6	-1	7
4	Poland	6	-7	4

Lithuania

Last Game: Kosovo 1-0 Lithuania
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 48.29%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 26.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Poland in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Poland.

Result
Poland	Draw	Lithuania
48.29% ( 0.68)	25.26% ( -0.05)	26.45% ( -0.63)

Both teams to score 52.35% (

-0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.35% (

-0.23)

50.65% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.44% (

-0.2)

72.56% (

0.2)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79% (

0.2)

20.99% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.23% (

0.31)

53.76% (

-0.31)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.27% (

-0.62)

33.73% (

0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.61% (

-0.69)

70.39% (

0.69)

Score Analysis

Poland 48.29%

Lithuania 26.45%

Draw 25.26%

Poland	Draw	Lithuania
1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 2.52% Total : 48.29%	1-1 @ 12.01% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.26%	0-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.32% Total : 26.45%