Nations League
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Bruno Fernandes
25'
-
Joao Neves
25'
-
Cristiano Ronaldo
45'+2'
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Rafael Leao
59'
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Rafael Leao
59'
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Cristiano Ronaldo
72'
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Bruno Fernandes
80'
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Pedro Neto
83'
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Cristiano Ronaldo
88'
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Nuno Tavares
90'+2'
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Marcin Bulka
56'
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Dominik Marczuk
88'
Portugal vs Poland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
Reaction
News
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News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F46%2Fcristiano-ronaldo.jpg)
The match
Result
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Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Fcristiano-ronaldo_1.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 66.32%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Poland had a probability of 13.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.39%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
Result
Portugal
66.32%
▲
(+0.05)
Draw
19.81%
▲
(+0.05)
Poland
13.88%
▼
(-0.09)
Both Teams to Score:
49.18%
▼
(-0.41)
Goals
Over 2.5
55.45%
▼
(-0.42)
Under 2.5
44.55%
▲
(+0.42)
Over 3.5
33.08%
▼
(-0.41)
Under 3.5
66.92%
▲
(+0.41)
Over 4.5
16.85%
▼
(-0.30)
Under 4.5
83.15%
▲
(+0.30)
Portugal Goals
Over 0.5
87.45%
▼
(-0.12)
Under 0.5
12.55%
▲
(+0.12)
Over 1.5
61.41%
▼
(-0.24)
Under 1.5
38.59%
▲
(+0.24)
Poland Goals
Over 0.5
56.23%
▼
(-0.40)
Under 0.5
43.77%
▲
(+0.40)
Over 1.5
20.07%
▼
(-0.33)
Under 1.5
79.93%
▲
(+0.33)
Score analysis
Portugal
66.31%
Draw
19.81%
Poland
13.88%
Portugal
2-0
@
11.83%
▲
(+0.11)
1-0 @ 11.39% ▲ (+0.16)
2-1 @ 9.78% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 8.19% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 6.76% ▼ (-0.05)
4-0 @ 4.25% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 3.51% ▼ (-0.04)
3-2 @ 2.79% ▼ (-0.05)
5-0 @ 1.76% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.03)
4-2 @ 1.45% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 66.31%
1-0 @ 11.39% ▲ (+0.16)
2-1 @ 9.78% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 8.19% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 6.76% ▼ (-0.05)
4-0 @ 4.25% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 3.51% ▼ (-0.04)
3-2 @ 2.79% ▼ (-0.05)
5-0 @ 1.76% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.03)
4-2 @ 1.45% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 66.31%
Draw
1-1
@
9.42%
▲
(+0.03)
0-0 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.10)
2-2 @ 4.04% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 19.81%
0-0 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.10)
2-2 @ 4.04% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 19.81%
Poland
0-1
@
4.54%
▲
(+0.04)
1-2 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.04)
0-2 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.11% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 1.39%
Total : 13.88%
1-2 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.04)
0-2 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.11% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 1.39%
Total : 13.88%
