We said: Malta 2-0 Finland
Malta have been exceptional at the back, and they could have success against Finland's struggling forward line.
The visitors have also been poor away from home, and their form on the road should make the hosts clear favourites to claim all three points.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 52.14%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Finland had a probability of 21.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Finland win it was 0-1 (8.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.