Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 45.91%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.29%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ghana would win this match.