Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 14, 2024 at 4pm UK

Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Madagascar
2 - 3
Tunisia

Memmich (20' og.), Amada (45+3')
Fontaine (45'), Amada (78')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Rafia (6'), Ltaief (39'), Abdi (90+3')
Kechrida (74')
Kechrida (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Madagascar and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Madagascar

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Gambia 1-0 Madagascar
Monday, October 14 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Tunisia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Comoros 1-1 Tunisia
Tuesday, October 15 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 56.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 17.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.64%) and 1-2 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.

Result
Madagascar	Draw	Tunisia
17.01% ( -0.41)	26.13% ( -0.47)	56.86% ( 0.87)

Both teams to score 38.57% (

0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.37% (

0.93)

62.63% (

-0.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.8% (

0.67)

82.2% (

-0.68)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.64% (

0.04)

50.35% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.1% (

0.03)

84.9% (

-0.03)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.69% (

0.77)

22.3% (

-0.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.23% (

1.14)

55.77% (

-1.14)

Score Analysis

Madagascar 17.01%

Tunisia 56.85%

Draw 26.13%

Madagascar	Draw	Tunisia
1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 3.97% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 17.01%	1-1 @ 11.56% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 11.23% ( -0.39) 2-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.36% Total : 26.13%	0-1 @ 16.85% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 12.64% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.67% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 6.32% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 4.34% ( 0.15) 0-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.54% Total : 56.85%