World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Second Round

Jun 6, 2024 at 10pm UK

Vale Farm Stadium

Haiti
2 - 1
St Lucia

Duverne (47'), Nazon (77')
Sainte (14'), Attys (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Elva (18')
Pearson (74'), Doxilly (90+3')

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - North Central America Second Round clash between Haiti and Saint Lucia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Haiti

All competitions

Last Game: Haiti 2-3 Jamaica
Monday, October 16 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

Saint Lucia

All competitions

Last Game: St Lucia 1-2 Sint Maarten
Sunday, November 19 at 7pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League B Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Kitts and Nevis	0	0	0
2	Saint Lucia	0	0	0
3	Guadeloupe	0	0	0
4	Sint Maarten	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haiti win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Saint Lucia had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Haiti win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.44%) and 2-0 (5.85%). The likeliest Saint Lucia win was 1-2 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Haiti in this match.

Result
Haiti	Draw	Saint Lucia
39.99% ( -0.44)	24.04% ( -0.05)	35.96% ( 0.49)

Both teams to score 61.16% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.79% (

0.32)

41.2% (

-0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.4% (

0.33)

63.6% (

-0.33)

Haiti Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.22% (

-0.07)

20.78% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.57% (

-0.11)

53.42% (

0.1)

Saint Lucia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.21% (

0.41)

22.79% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.51% (

0.61)

56.49% (

-0.61)

Score Analysis

Haiti 39.99%

Saint Lucia 35.96%

Draw 24.04%

Haiti	Draw	Saint Lucia
2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.83% Total : 39.99%	1-1 @ 11% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.04%	1-2 @ 8.14% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.01% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.34% Total : 35.96%