Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 70.43%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Sint Maarten had a probability of 13.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 3-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.33%), while for a Sint Maarten win it was 1-2 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.