Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 68.84%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Sint Maarten had a probability of 13.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 1-0 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.22%), while for a Sint Maarten win it was 1-2 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guadeloupe would win this match.