Cuba national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Group Stage
Jul 2, 2023 at 12.30am UK
BBVA Compass Stadium

Cuba
1 - 4
Guadeloupe

Hernandez (62' pen., 62' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-6)
Phaeton (13', 13', 43', 43'), Plumain (41', 41'), Baron (50', 50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Cuba and Guadeloupe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cuba

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Guatemala 1-0 Cuba
Wednesday, June 28 at 1.45am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Guadeloupe

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Canada 2-2 Guadeloupe
Wednesday, June 28 at 12am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Cuba had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.93%). The likeliest Cuba win was 1-0 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guadeloupe would win this match.

Result
CubaDrawGuadeloupe
25.86% (-1.129 -1.13)25.62% (0.121 0.12)48.51% (1.008 1.01)
Both teams to score 50.75% (-1.298 -1.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.48% (-1.248 -1.25)52.52% (1.249 1.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.82% (-1.082 -1.08)74.18% (1.081 1.08)
Cuba Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.78% (-1.594 -1.59)35.22% (1.594 1.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.02% (-1.701 -1.7)71.97% (1.701 1.7)
Guadeloupe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.34% (-0.073000000000008 -0.07)21.66% (0.074000000000002 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.2% (-0.11199999999999 -0.11)54.79% (0.112 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Cuba 25.86%
    Guadeloupe 48.51%
    Draw 25.61%
CubaDrawGuadeloupe
1-0 @ 7.96% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 6.35% (-0.255 -0.26)
2-0 @ 4.15% (-0.157 -0.16)
3-1 @ 2.21% (-0.191 -0.19)
3-2 @ 1.69% (-0.15 -0.15)
3-0 @ 1.45% (-0.121 -0.12)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 25.86%
1-1 @ 12.17% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 7.63% (0.37 0.37)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.206 -0.21)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 25.61%
0-1 @ 11.66% (0.54 0.54)
1-2 @ 9.31% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 8.93% (0.395 0.4)
1-3 @ 4.75% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-3 @ 4.55% (0.192 0.19)
2-3 @ 2.48% (-0.111 -0.11)
1-4 @ 1.82% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.74% (0.069 0.07)
2-4 @ 0.95% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 48.51%

How you voted: Cuba vs Guadeloupe

Cuba
35.2%
Draw
20.4%
Guadeloupe
44.4%
54
Head to Head
Mar 26, 2023 9pm
League B
Cuba
1-0
Guadeloupe
Matos (45+2')
Jun 3, 2022 1am
League B
Guadeloupe
2-1
Cuba
G (15'), Ambrose (90')
Ambrose (47'), M (77')
Reyes (74')
Piedra (45'), Cavafe (51'), Paradela (80')