Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Cuba had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.93%). The likeliest Cuba win was 1-0 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guadeloupe would win this match.