Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 77.2%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Saint Kitts and Nevis had a probability of 8.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.63%) and 1-2 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.44%), while for a Saint Kitts and Nevis win it was 2-1 (2.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guadeloupe would win this match.