Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Kitts and Nevis win with a probability of 69.56%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Saint Martin had a probability of 12.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Kitts and Nevis win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.78%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.43%), while for a Saint Martin win it was 1-0 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Kitts and Nevis would win this match.