World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 26, 2025 at 12am UK

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Colombia
2 - 2
Paraguay

Diaz (1', 1', 1'), Duran (13', 13', 13')
Diaz (81'), Diaz (81'), Diaz (81'), Campaz (89'), Campaz (89'), Campaz (89')

FT(HT: 6-3)

Alonso (45+4', 45+4', 45+4'), Enciso (62', 62', 62')
Galarza (49'), Galarza (49'), Galarza (49'), Galarza (49'), Galarza (49'), Galarza (49'), Fernandez Torres (85'), Fernandez Torres (85'), Fernandez Torres (85'), Velazquez (86'), Velazquez (86'), Velazquez (86'), Cubas (90+3'), Cubas (90+3'), Cubas (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Colombia and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions

Last Game: Brazil 2-1 Colombia
Friday, March 21 at 12.45am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	13	15	28
2	Ecuador	13	8	25
3	Brazil	13	7	21
4	Uruguay	13	7	20
5	Paraguay	13	2	20
6	Colombia	13	4	19
7	Bolivia	13	-16	13
8	Venezuela	13	-5	12
9	Peru	13	-10	10
10	Chile	13	-12	9

Paraguay

All competitions

Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Chile
Thursday, March 20 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	13	15	28
2	Ecuador	13	8	25
3	Brazil	13	7	21
4	Uruguay	13	7	20
5	Paraguay	13	2	20
6	Colombia	13	4	19
7	Bolivia	13	-16	13
8	Venezuela	13	-5	12
9	Peru	13	-10	10
10	Chile	13	-12	9

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 64.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 13.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.82%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result
Colombia	Draw	Paraguay
64.25% ( -0.5)	22.46% ( 0.35)	13.29% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 40.02% (

-0.52)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.84% (

-0.95)

56.16% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.78% (

-0.77)

77.22% (

0.77)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.03% (

-0.5)

16.97% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.92% (

-0.9)

47.08% (

0.9)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.2% (

-0.34)

51.8% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.13% (

-0.22)

85.88% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Colombia 64.24%

Paraguay 13.29%

Draw 22.45%

Colombia	Draw	Paraguay
1-0 @ 15.59% ( 0.31) 2-0 @ 13.82% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.12% Total : 64.24%	1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.79% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.45%	0-1 @ 5.78% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 3.37% 0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.23% Total : 13.29%