World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Sep 10, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stad al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Bahrain
0 - 5
Japan

Al Khatal (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ueda (37' pen., 47'), Morita (61', 64'), Ogawa (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's AFC World Cup Qualifying clash between Bahrain and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahrain

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Australia 0-1 Bahrain
Thursday, September 5 at 11.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bahrain	3	0	6
2	South Korea	3	2	5
3	Jordan	3	3	4
4	Malaysia	3	-5	1

Japan

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Japan 7-0 China
Thursday, September 5 at 11.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iraq	3	4	9
2	Japan	3	3	6
3	Indonesia	3	-3	3
4	Vietnam	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Bahrain had a probability of 21.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Bahrain win it was 2-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
Bahrain	Draw	Japan
21.77% ( 0.24)	22.54% ( 0.1)	55.68% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 55.88% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.5% (

-0.15)

43.5% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.11% (

-0.15)

65.89% (

0.15)

Bahrain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.11% (

0.14)

33.89% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.44% (

0.15)

70.56% (

-0.14)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.52% (

-0.16)

15.48% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.64% (

-0.31)

44.36% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Bahrain 21.77%

Japan 55.68%

Draw 22.54%

Bahrain	Draw	Japan
2-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.19% Total : 21.77%	1-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.54%	1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.13% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 6.14% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 5.68% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.87% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.65% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.62% Total : 55.68%