Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahrain win with a probability of 78.85%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 6.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahrain win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.82%) and 3-0 (12.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.83%), while for a Nepal win it was 0-1 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahrain would win this match.