Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 45.85%. A win for Mantova had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Mantova win was 1-0 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.