Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 1-0 (10.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.