Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Palermo win was 0-1 (8.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.