Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 59.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.17% and a win for Bari had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (10.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.