Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 46.57%. A draw had a probability of 27.99% and a win for Bari had a probability of 25.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.24%) and 0-2 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%) , while for a Bari win it was 1-0 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.