Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 42.66%. A win for Virtus Entella had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest Virtus Entella win was 1-0 (9.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.