Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 38.51%. A win for Monza had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 28.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (10.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.