Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Calcio Padova win with a probability of 35.87%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 29.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Calcio Padova win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 0-1 (10.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.