Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudtirol win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Mantova had a probability of 29.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudtirol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Mantova win was 0-1 (9.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.