Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Avellino win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 29.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Avellino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 0-1 (10.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.