Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reggiana win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Avellino had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reggiana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Avellino win was 0-1 (10.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.