Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Modena had a probability of 28.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (7.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.