Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 55.35%. A draw had a probability of 26.35% and a win for Bari had a probability of 18.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%) , while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.