Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 56.46%. A draw had a probability of 24.24% and a win for Catanzaro had a probability of 19.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.73%) and 2-0 (10.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%) , while for a Catanzaro win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.