Without Nzola, it is hard to find a reliable source of goals in the Spezia squad, and that could be costly in this vital encounter.
Salernitana have plenty of talent in attack as well as Dia, with the likes of Antonio Candreva and Krzysztof Piatek also available, and that could be what gives them the edge in this clash.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salernitana win with a probability of 36.21%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 35.77% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salernitana win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.76%) and 0-2 (6.64%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
