Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 52.1%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 2-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.