Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.