Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 49.58%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 27.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.