Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.