Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Genoa in this match.