Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 51.17%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 26.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 2-1 (6.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.