Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.27%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 21.07% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 1-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (5.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lazio in this match.