Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 47%. A win for Parma had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Parma win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Cagliari in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Cagliari.