Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 49.31%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 25.69% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.