Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 42.61%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Napoli win was 1-2 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.