Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Monza had a probability of 29.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Monza win was 1-0 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.