Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 12, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys

Barcelona
3 - 1
Napoli

(Barcelona win 4-2 on aggregate)

Lopez (15'), Cancelo (17'), Lewandowski (83')
Christensen (19'), Yamal (44')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Rrahmani (30')
Jesus (45+2'), Traore (63'), Olivera (67')

Reaction

Barcelona's Pau Cubarsi on March 12, 2024

Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsi help Barcelona create Champions League history

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Mar 13, 18:48

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Mallorca
Friday, March 8 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Napoli

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Torino
Friday, March 8 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Napoli win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Napoli
48.56% ( 0.01)	23.38%	28.06% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 59.91% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.7% (

-0.01)

41.3% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.3% (

-0.02)

63.7% (

0.02)

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.78% (

17.21%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.5% (

47.5%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.37% (

-0.02)

27.63% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.83% (

-0.02)

63.17% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Barcelona 48.56%

Napoli 28.06%

Draw 23.38%

Barcelona	Draw	Napoli
2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.55% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.32% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.44% 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0) Other @ 4% Total : 48.56%	1-1 @ 10.76% 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.38%	1-2 @ 6.92% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.12% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 28.06%