Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Monza had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.