Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Monza in this match.