Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 18.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
Result | ||
Cagliari | Draw | Salernitana |
57.52% ( -0.08) | 23.9% ( -0.02) | 18.57% ( 0.1) |
Both teams to score 46.73% ( 0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.81% ( 0.22) | 53.18% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.25% ( 0.19) | 74.75% ( -0.19) |
Cagliari Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.7% ( 0.05) | 18.3% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.62% ( 0.09) | 49.37% ( -0.09) |
Salernitana Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.2% ( 0.26) | 42.8% ( -0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.87% ( 0.22) | 79.12% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Cagliari | Draw | Salernitana |
1-0 @ 13.3% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 57.52% | 1-1 @ 11.28% 0-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.71% Total : 23.89% | 0-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 18.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 33 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 79 | 18 | 61 | 86 |
2 | AC Milan | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 70 |
3 | Juventus | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 65 |
4 | Bologna | 33 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 48 | 26 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Roma | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 59 | 37 | 22 | 54 |
7 | Lazio | 33 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 52 |
8 | Napoli | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 49 |
9 | Fiorentina | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 47 |
10 | Torino | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 46 |
11 | Monza | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 44 |
12 | Genoa | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 39 |
13 | Lecce | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 36 |
14 | CagliariCagliari | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 32 |
15 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 31 |
16 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 31 |
17 | Empoli | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 31 |
18 | Udinese | 33 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 31 | 50 | -19 | 28 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 26 |
R | Salernitana | 34 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 26 | 73 | -47 | 15 |
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