Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 40.5%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Empoli would win this match.